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CAPA Airlines in Transition 2015                   Dublin, 25-26 March 2015

 
CAPA Airlines in Transition 2015 Agenda*

*Subject to final confirmation

DAY 1 – WEDNESDAY 25 MARCH 2015
08:00 Registration
08:30 Chairman's welcome
08:40 Keynote address: Ireland’s aviation & travel future
Ireland’s Minister of Transport, Tourism and Sport,
Paschal Donohoe
09:00
Welcome address
daa, Chief Executive, Kevin Toland
09:10 The CAPA aviation outlook for 2015 - Part (A) industry transformation
  • The outlook for hybridisation, as LCCs evolve towards full service and as legacy airlines look for LCC solutions;
  • The sustainability of new joint venture models, bilateral alliances and global alliances, codesharing, as airlines search for durable models for the future;
  • Investigation of the roles of the Gulf carriers in transforming long-haul connectivity;
CAPA - Centre for Aviation, Executive Chairman, Peter Harbison
09:25 The CAPA aviation outlook for 2015 - Part (B) industry profitability
  • Is the airline industry operating in a dangerous bubble of the profit-inflating influences of cheap oil and industry seat capacity constraints?
  • When will the oil bubble burst and will capacity flood back into aviation markets?
  • Are we on track for a difficult 2015/16 after a benign 2013/14?
CAPA - Centre for Aviation, Chief Financial Analyst, Jonathan Wober
09:40 Low-cost and full service airlines transitioning to a new world
Confronted by the constraints of ownership and control rules, airlines are taking diverging courses on how to respond to rapid change in the industry. Some, under the guise of “fairness”, are seeking to entrench the status quo. Others are adapting to the competitive realities and taking advantage of opportunities - evolving into a whole new ecology. This panel explores some of the more opportunistic strategies being followed.

Moderator: CAPA – Centre for Aviation, Executive Chairman, Peter Harbison

Panellists:

  • Aer Lingus, CEO, Stephen Kavanagh
  • Air Arabia, Group CEO, Adel Ali
  • Air China, VP & General Manager North America, Zhihang Chi
10:30 COFFEE sponsored by Global Eagle Entertainment (GEE)
11:00 Introduction to Airlink
Airlink / Katten Muchin Rosenman LLP, Special Counsel, Robyn Mandel
11:10 Survival strategies for mid and small network and legacy airlines
Confined to short-haul operations, as they generally do not have the wherewithal to compete on long-haul, smaller full service airlines risk becoming an endangered species. Various avenues for survival are being adopted. These include:
  • Joining global alliances;
  • Seeking equity and/or joining an equity alliance or Group of airlines with common ownership;
  • Pursuing a virtual long-haul existence through codeshares and other partnerships;
Alternatively, is there a way of standing alone? If so, how? This panel explores some of the options pursued by smaller airlines.

Moderator: European Aviation Club, Chairman, Rigas Doganis

Panellists:

  • airBaltic, CEO, Martin Gauss
  • CityJet, Chairman, Pat Byrne
  • Croatia Airlines, President & CEO, Kresimir Kucko
  • Flybe, CEO, Saad Hammad
  • LOT Polish Airlines, CEO, Sebastian Mikosz
12:15 LUNCH
13:30
How do you make a long-haul low-cost airline work?
The long-haul low-cost model has evolved in Asia. It has found its own sweet-spot in existing aircraft types. It is evolving into a connecting model, with ‘business class’ seating, frequent flyer programmes, airport lounges and a target market which includes corporates. What lessons can be drawn from the various models; self-standing (AirAsia X); full service subsidiaries (Jetstar International, Air Canada Rouge, Scoot, NokScoot) and emerging models (Norwegian, VietJet?
  • How important is the slumping oil price in determining their futures?
  • Will the new breed of A330s and 787s change the sweet spot?
  • Are long-haul low-cost carriers an appropriate substitute where the full service airline cannot go?
  • What differing needs does long-haul low-cost connectivity have from conventional hub operations?

Moderator: CAPA – Centre for Aviation, Executive Chairman, Peter Harbison

Panellists:

  • Dublin Aerospace, Executive Chairman, Conor McCarthy
  • Etihad Airways, General Counsel & Company Secretary, Jim Callaghan
  • European Aviation Club, Chairman, Rigas Doganis
  • former COO Cebu Pacific, Mark Breen
14:30
How to achieve a consistent passenger experience across different distribution channels
  • Strategies for optimising customer-centric selling, merchandising and personalisation, and how can airlines best assess a customer’s willingness to pay?
  • What happens when certain ancillaries become free?
  • How does an airline blend loyalty benefits with the desire and need to sell ancillaries?
Moderator: Concuros Partners, Partner, Michael Hayden

Panellists:

  • Air Europa, Head of Network Planning & Distribution, Albert Muntané Casanova
  • Datalex, CEO, Aidan Brogan
  • Flynas, CEO, Paul Byrne
  • Travelport, Global Head of Product & Marketing, Ian Heywood
15:30 COFFEE sponsored by Holiday Extras
16:00 Keynote address: Evolution of a “hybrid” airline group
Qantas Airways
, CEO, Alan Joyce
The Qantas Group has undergone sweeping change, brought on by massive disruption in its core international markets and new airline entry of low-cost competition amid the forces of liberalisation.

The group’s responses have become models that many airlines seek to emulate. They have included the pioneering establishment of the Jetstar LCC businesses, development of a vibrant frequent flyer programme, a unique internal management structure, a deep Middle East airline partnership and an unswerving focus on the corporate traveller. As a prelude to a wider panel discussion, Alan Joyce will discuss the components of this comprehensive strategy and how it has positioned the Qantas Group for the next wave of industry transformation.
16:20 The evolution of airline groups
Necessarily each region’s airlines must adapt to their specific environment. How have the various group models developed? What do they have in common, how do they differ and what are their common elements.

Moderator: De Paul University College of Law, Distinguished Research Professor of Law, Brian Havel

Panellists:

  • Air Arabia, Group CEO, Adel Ali
  • Air China, VP & General Manager North America, Zhihang Chi
  • All Nippon Airways, SVP EMEA, Yutaka Ito
  • Dublin Aerospace, Executive Chairman, Conor McCarthy
  • Qantas Airways, CEO, Alan Joyce
17:30 End of Day 1
19:00 Pre-dinner drinks
19:30 The annual Airlines in Transition roundtable dinner
Welcome address: Travelport, Senior VP & Managing Director, Derek Sharp

Dinner topic: Ownership and Control. Aviation is an industry devoid of innovation, where reactionary forces find government backing. IATA talks about ending ownership and control provisions, but de facto defaults to mere technicalities of bilaterals. When, if ever, will the most fundamental driver of innovation - changes to ownership and control rules - finally arrive?

Moderator: CAPA - Centre for Aviation, Executive Chairman, Peter Harbison

Panellists:
  • Aer Lingus, CEO, Stephen Kavanagh
  • Dublin Airport, Managing Director, Vincent Harrison
  • Dublin Aerospace, Executive Chairman, Conor McCarthy
  • easyJet, Group Commercial Director, Catherine Lynn
  • Embraer Commercial Aviation, CCO, John Slattery
  • Etihad Airways, General Counsel and Company Secretary, Jim Callaghan
  • Malaysia Airlines, CEO, Christoph Mueller
  • Irish Aviation Authority, CEO, Eamonn Brennan
  • Qantas Airways, CEO, Alan Joyce
DAY 2 – THURSDAY 26 MARCH 2015
08:00 Special breakfast briefing: Meeting the demands of network and fleet planning
Network and fleet planning executives share their insights on creating a network that meets the needs of the leisure (and increasingly, business) traveller – but also keeping the lid on cost. This session delves into the art and science behind the ‘traditional’ areas of airline planning, network and fleet.
  • Are airline managers having to become more creative as the traditional methods of planning apply less and less in the new airline business environment?
  • Network planning is now based more on intuition and vision and less on exhaustive scientific optimisation techniques – or is it?

Moderator: Dublin Airport, SVP Aviation Business Development, Jon Woolf

Panellists:

  • Air Europa, Head of Network Planning & Distribution, Albert Muntané Casanova
  • Airline strategist and author, Nawal Taneja
  • OAG, SVP, John Grant
09:00
Chairman's welcome
09:05 Who has the right formula for European aviation?

Moderator:
CAPA - Centre for Aviation, Chief Financial Analyst, Jonathan Wober

Panellists:
  • Association of European Airlines, CEO, Athar Husain Khan
  • Air Serbia, CEO, Dane Kondic
  • easyJet, Group Commercial Director, Catherine Lynn
  • LOT Polish Airlines, CEO, Sebastian Mikosz
10:05
Disruption! Where's the next world-changing innovation coming from? What lies ahead for travel and aviation?
When will the next Uber, Spotify, Apple iPod or LinkedIn moment sweep through the consumer and business world and change everything? Or are we in for a period of few – or no – radical innovations that influence consumer behaviour for the rest of this decade?

Moderator: affinnity, Founder, Sinead Finn

Panellists:
  • ADARA, SVP Business Development, Tobias Wessels
  • CarTrawler, CTO, Bobby Healy
  • Ryanair, Chief Marketing Officer, Kenny Jacobs
  • Sabre Airline Solutions, VP Marketing Solutions, Stan Boyer
11:05 COFFEE
11:35 Hybridising to capture the corporate dollar
Like moths to the flame, most LCCs have eschewed their original religious purity of cost-is-everything, instead recognising that improving yields is a much easier way of making money. However, the real danger in making that strategic leap is that the aggressive focus on keeping costs low is lost, along with the competitive margins against their legacy competitors – who were also busily reducing their costs.

The most obvious steps in this evolution were forced on the long-haul low-cost airlines. On long-haul it was harder to maintain a cost differential against the legacy airlines, which were able to achieve greater utilisation, a key cost saving item, using large widebodies. So adding a little to the yield profile became essential and a few larger or near-lie flat seats were added at the front, followed by airport lounges and so it went.

Similarly, as short-haul LCCs became ubiquitous and the corporate market grew more price sensitive post-GFC, that product became an obvious corporate target. Not much needed to be done to adapt for point-to-point services; the economy in-flight product was by now not so different from the full service competitors; OTP and frequency were often similar or even better. Just a change of focus and point of sale, with some frills – easy…

This panel looks at each side of the equation, corporate buyers, LCCs, full service airlines and intermediaries

Moderator: Association of Corporate Travel Executives (ACTE), President, and Troovo CEO, Kurt Knackstedt

Panellists:
  • Aer Lingus, Chief Revenue Officer, Mike Rutter
  • easyJet, Group Commercial Director, Catherine Lynn
  • CWT, Director, Air Solutions EMEA, Maxime Marembaud
  • Travelport, Senior VP & Managing Director, Derek Sharp
12:30 Redefining airport hubs: connectivity - the next vital piece in the industry's advancement
Now that the industry's two previously near-autonomous airline categories, LCCs and FSCs, are increasingly feeling the need to connect, the repercussions are being felt at every level, by airports, IT providers, government regulators and more; even the global alliances are looking at ways of integrating the new models into their systems. Codesharing, partnering, interlining and simply co-operating are all taking on new levels of significance.

Today, definitions of airports’ roles are being stretched, as self-connection between point to point operations becomes commonplace. Airlines have different needs and airports are responding differently, some more effectively than others. And, as the role of national airlines is redefined, is there a need to reassess the nature of national connectivity?

Moderator: De Paul University College of Law, Distinguished Research Professor of Law, Brian Havel

Panellists:

  • Association of European Airlines, CEO, Athar Husain Khan
  • Dublin Airport, Managing Director, Vincent Harrison
  • Finavia Corporation, Senior VP, Joni Sundelin
  • SITA, VP Sales, Northern Europe, Murray Smyth
13:30 FAREWELL LUNCH
DAY 3 – FRIDAY 27 MARCH 2015
09:00 Golf Day: THE CAPA CUP: Europe vs ROW
Tourism Ireland are kindly hosting a special Golf Day at the Powerscourt Golf Course for up to 12 golfers. Tee off will be at 09:00 following a breakfast at the golf course club house at 08:00. Anyone wanting to play golf should ensure they register on the registration form and bring their golf shoes. Clubs will be provided but golfers must advise if they are left or right handed.